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Published: 4 October 2024,03:22
Trade Of The Day
In August, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 5.25%, marking the first reduction in over four years. This decision is primarily driven by a cooling in price pressures and a slowdown in inflation, which is expected to fall within the bank’s target range of 1-3% in the near term. Economic growth in New Zealand has slowed, and rising unemployment has also contributed to the decision to lower rates. However, the upcoming decision is expected to maintain the rate given the central bank recent rate cut. While further cuts are likely before the year end, this decision will remain data-dependent, particularly regarding inflation.
The most recent FOMC meeting minutes, covering the September 2024 meeting, reflect a continued cautious stance by the Federal Reserve, as inflation remains a key concern despite cooling from its previous highs. Regarding economic growth, Fed officials acknowledged the resilience of the U.S. economy, but warned that higher interest rates could slow down economic activity in sectors like housing and business investment. The Fed is expected to reflects its dovish stance given that the Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
For August, the U.S. Core Consumer Price Index on a year-over-year basis, increased by 3.2%, reflecting inflationary pressures, in line with market expectation. The figures were particularly driven by shelter costs. Shelter accounted for over 70% of the year-over-year increase, with rent and owners’ equivalent rent seeing significant upticks of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. The rise in shelter costs continues to be a primary driver behind the elevated Core CPI figures, despite moderation in energy prices, particularly gasoline, which saw a 10.3% decline over the past year. The expectations for upcoming release will likely to show that the inflation remain elevated, but may also slight decrease due to easing supply chain issues and demand in some sector softens.
The latest data release for the U.S. Core Producer Price Index (PPI) shows an annual increase of 2.4% for August. While it was lower than market expectation of 2.5% but still higher than the previous reading of 2.3%, reflects ongoing inflationary pressures at the production level. Several factors have contributed to this data, including rising production costs and supply chain adjustments. The expectations for the next release are anticipated to reflect continued inflation pressures, particularly if labor and commodity costs remain elevated.
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