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Published: 22 March 2024,09:39
In January, the U.S durable goods orders have fell 6.1% vs -4.5% expected, marking the largest decrease in nearly four years, while business investment in equipment appeared to have eased, indicating a decrease in economic momentum at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, there are indications of recovery in the industrial sector of the economy recently, and the potential for lower interest rates later in the year could contribute to an increase in demand as the Fed recently hinted at further rate cuts. Consequently, orders may rebound and show improvement.
The UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) experienced a contraction of -0.3% in Q4, worse than the expected decline of -0.1%. This downturn was attributed to declines across all primary sectors and caused the UK to enter a technical recession. However, recent developments suggest that the UK is on track to emerge from a minor recession within months with official figures indicating that there was a modest growth of 0.2% in January. The upcoming data is expected to have a better result next week.
US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
The GDP growth in the largest economy globally was adjusted to an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the last quarter of 2023 during preliminary release, down slightly from the initial estimate of 3.3 percent released the previous month due mainly to a downward revision to business investment. Despite predictions of weakening consumer spending due to reduced pandemic savings and high borrowing costs, consumption has remained surprisingly resilient. The market anticipates that growth will slow but remain positive in the upcoming quarters.
In January, the UK central bank maintained its interest rates at the current level of 5.25% as widely expected but provided hints of a coming cut. Despite that, the market expects that UK central bank will hold its rate steady for the upcoming meeting as the decision to cut rates is highly improbable at the moment due to the risk of stoking up prices and wages again before inflation is fully conquered.
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