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Demand for gold was underpinned as the market was cautious ahead of…

Demand for gold was underpinned as the market was cautious ahead of the inflation issue

Market Focus US markets started this week with outperformance as major tech companies’ earnings are revealed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs while the Nasdaq …

20211026
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Market Focus

US markets started this week with outperformance as major tech companies’ earnings are revealed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at record highs while the Nasdaq rose 0.9% on Monday. The S&P 500 also traded at record highs, boosted by a 12% surge in Tesla’s shares as it hit $1 trillion market capitalisation for the first time.

Electric carmaker Tesla hit a $1 trillion market cap on Monday after Hertz decided to buy 100,000 vehicles. After the news of the deal, it brought up the price of Tesla to $1,045, a new record high.

Meanwhile, China has gathered the political momentum to get the ball rolling on property. Last weekend, the Chinese state Council was authorised to conduct a test in unspecified regions for five years. The purpose of the test is to attempt to limit speculation in China’s property market. Since real estate and related sectors account for at least 25% of GDP, tapped taxes will bring significant revenue to the Chinese government.

Main Pairs Movement

Gold price advanced above $1,800 on Monday despite a risk-on market sentiment. Demand for gold was underpinned as the market was cautious ahead of the inflation issue. Gold price will keep its eye on several economic releases later this week.

EUR/USD traded in a tight range as the markets took a high alert ahead of the ECB meeting this week. At the end of the day, EURUSD was trading at 1.16065, 0.33% lower.

USD/JPY remained strong near 113.70 despite the slightly weaker US 10-year Treasury Yield, trading lower at 1.63%, which undermined the demand for the US dollar. USD/JPY traded slightly higher as Janet Yellen commented on inflation and Fed’s tapering schedule.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

The USD/JPY pair posted some demand at the start of the week and seems to have stalled its recent corrective pullback from multi-year tops for now. The pair held on to its modest intraday gains, around the 113.65-75 region, throughout the mid-European session, and once jumped to the daily high at 113.92 during Wall Street’s opening. It soon fell back to the tight range that it previously settled at.

With a light economic calendar, the revived risk-on mood weighed on the safe-haven Japanese yen and may be seen as the major factor that underpinned the rally of the USD/JPY pair. Bulls need to wait until the Thursday US GDP reports for further clues to support the US dollar demand, and assist the pair to defend the lower end of a short-term ascending channel.

On the technical front, the daily MACD histogram is still on the bullish side, plus the RSI indicator has just dropped below the overbought territory, leaving room for the pair on the upside. The first resistance for the pair may appear at 113.75, followed by the yearly peak at 114.70.

Resistance: 113.75, 114.70

Support: 112.90, 111.13, 109.28

EURAUD (Daily Chart)

The EUR/AUD cross plummeted on the first day of the week, losing most of its gains from last Thursday and Friday’s rally, and now trading at 1.5495, where the season lows sit. The pair began its downward ride in the early European session, recovered some loss during the American opening, but then continued its negative trajectory afterwards.

The cross’s weakness may derive from the AUD’s appreciation amid the broader positive market mood. Investors have now shifted their focus toward the Australian inflation figures due on Wednesday, and the looming ECB meeting on Thursday.

On the technical aspect, the MACD histogram remains in the bearish territory, suggesting the selling stream of the cross may proceed. However, the RSI indicator shows 30.22 at the moment, just one step ahead of the oversold region, indicating a short-term correction may occur before the cross takes a nosedive. On the downside, May’s low of 1.5420 would be a strong level of support against the bears, followed by 1.5250, the yearly low.

Resistance: 1.5616, 1.5776, 1.5910

Support: 1.5420, 1.5250  

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

The Loonie continued its gains on Friday amid broader Greenback strength. The pair made its first attempt to break through the 1.2400 threshold, but failed as the risk-on market mood limited the strength of the safe-haven USD. However, as the Fed’s taper schedule looms, a breach of that level may just be a matter of time.

The strong US dollar has continued to be the major driver for the rise of the Loonie pair. Powell’s hawkish comment is still fueling demand for the Greenback despite the elevating prices of the commodities. Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada’s rate meetings and the US GDP report are on the table. Investors seem reluctant to place significant bets ahead of the crucial releases.

On the technical front, the daily MACD histogram is almost going to form a golden cross at the moment. The price actions are still hovering around the 61.8% Fibonacci. As above mentioned, some catalysts may be required to break through this awkward situation.

Resistance: 1.2478, 1.2727, 1.2949

Support: 1.2229, 1.2007

20211026
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Powell reiterates the urgency to begin tapering, while at the same time…

Powell reiterates the urgency to begin tapering, while at the same time stating that it is not time for a rate hike yet

20211025
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Market Focus

All three major U.S. stock indices recorded weekly gains on the back of better-than-expected 3rd quarter earnings results from major companies. The Dow notched another record close on Friday to close at 35677.02, the S&P 500 lost 0.1% to close at 4544.9, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8% to close at 15090.2. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield trended higher to close at 1.638%.

Major companies including Procter & Gamble and Netflix both reported their 3rd quarter earnings results during this week. Procter & Gamble reported Q3 earnings that beat Wall Street’s estimate as consumers continue to demand cleaning supplies and beauty products. Netflix also posted better-than-expected earnings as the company was able to add 4.4 million subscribers over the quarter. Facebook, AMD, Alphabet Inc, Amazon Inc, and Berkshire Hathaway are among the major companies that will report their Q3 earnings for this week.

Cryptocurrencies enjoyed a healthy rise over the past week as Bitcoin rallied past $60,000 and reached historical heights. Ethereum and other alternative coins also experienced healthy gains. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,071, Ethereum is trading at $4088, and XRP is trading at $1.0803.

This week’s economic docket is headlined by the Australian CPI, U.S. GDP for Q3, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, and the European Union CPI.

Main Pairs Movement

The Greenback rose on Friday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, once again, affirms the Fed’s previously adopted hawkish stance. In his speech, Powell reiterates the urgency to begin tapering, while at the same time stating that it is not time for a rate hike yet. Powell also provided a positive outlook on the recent supply chain crunch as he expects constraints to ease as expected, and it is “very possible” that the Fed’s full employment goal would be met by next year.

Most currency pairs against the dollar struggled as the Greenback gained steam. USDJPY, however, experienced a 0.44% daily slide as the pair could have already reached the level where some investors have begun taking profits. GBPUSD saw a 0.3% intraday decline. The Pound struggled due to weaker-than-expected September retail sales. USDCAD gained 0.03% as the Dollar strengthened to help the pair extend yesterday’s winning session.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY (Daily Chart)

The USDJPY pair dived deeper on Friday, extending its southern corrections from multi-year highs at 114.70 to session lows right above 113.40. The pair started its intraday slide since the early European session, rebounding slightly as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech indicated an upcoming taper from the Fed, and then resumed its downside slide afterwards.

In Friday’s speech, Powell said that he thinks it is the time to start reducing asset purchases, which reaffirmed the investors’ anticipation of November tapering, creating sudden panic in the market. The dollar surged for a bit, though it did not stop the selling stream of the USDJPY. A possibility for that may be profit-taking, as some investors might have closed their long positions after the prolonged USDJPY uptrend.

On the technical front, both the daily MACD histogram and the RSI indicator are still on the bullish side. The price actions have been away from the top of the Bollinger Bands, sparing some rooms for further rally.

Resistance: 113.75, 114.70

Support: 112.65, 110.97, 109.17

GBPUSD (Daily Chart)

Cable continues yesterday’s decline, edging lower to end the week at 1.3755. The pair climbed higher to a daily top in the early European session but failed to preserve its bullish momentum afterwards, as the Fed’s Chair Powell brought up tapering issues in his speech during the American trading hours, which led the pair to suddenly plummet over 40 pips.

Sterling’s weakness may derive from dismal retail sales data. The UK retail sales released Friday showed a -0.2% reading in September, a big miss to the market’s expectation of 0.5%. The downbeat macros also revived Covid concerns as UK policymakers rejected restrictions, further weighing on the British Pound.

On the technical front, both the MACD histogram and RSI indicator remain in bullish territory, suggesting the demand for the Pound is still robust. Considering the looming UK rates hike plan, it is reasonable to expect the pair to get back on its upward track.

Resistance: 1.3830, 1.4000, 1.4220

Support: 1.3720, 1.3580, 1.3410

USDCAD (Daily Chart)

Loonie defended its gains on Thursday and successfully closed in the green amid broader Greenback strength. The pair once climbed to a daily high at 1.2383, which matches Thursday’s high, and consolidated near the high afterwards with a strong bullish impulse. A break higher would clear the way for a test of 1.2400.

A stronger US dollar across the board has been the critical driver in the Loonie pair. Fed Chair Powell mentioned that high inflation will likely last well into next year. He affirmed that it is time to taper the Fed’s Quantitative Easing measures, but not the time to raise rates. Commodities including crude oils reversed sharply after Powell’s speech.

On the technical front, both the daily MACD histogram and the RSI indicator are still deeply under the bearish territory. The price actions lingered around the 61.8% Fibonacci throughout the day, some catalysts may be required to break through this awkward situation.

Resistance: 1.2478, 1.2727, 1.2949

Support: 1.2229, 1.2007

20211025
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US Treasury yields rose as markets await the Fed’s next move regarding…

US Treasury yields rose as markets await the Fed’s next move regarding the timeline of raising interest rates after it has finished tapering

20211022
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Market Focus

US markets were mixed amid strong earnings reports from companies, and the Fed’s upcoming tapering move. The S&P 500 continued to notch new records, while the tech weighted Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Averages closed a bit lower after reaching an all-time high on Wednesday, dropping 6 points.

US Treasury yields rose as markets await the Fed’s next move regarding the timeline of raising interest rates after it has finished tapering. US inflation expectations, which is measured by a 10-year breakeven inflation rate, jumped to the highest since 2012. The US dollar might witness a rally when the 10-year yield crosses the 1.70% mark.

Responding to the growing controversy over investing practices, the Fed has announced new rules to ban policymakers from investing in individual stocks. In the meantime, they will be restricted to buying and selling mutual funds, which will also require permission. The purpose of the change is to ensure the Fed’s ethical conduct and address the controversy.

Main Pairs Movement

The US dollar was trading at familiar levels throughout the day as the light macro calendar provided no news that would impact the market. The Dollar index consolidated within a tight range, between 93.550 to 93.800. Further instructions may be given after the Markit PMI is revealed on Friday.

However, most major pairs performed badly against the Greenback. The EUR/USD pair traded around 1.1625, while GBP/USD dropped below the 1.3800 level, hovering around 1.3785. The commodity-linked currencies failed to maintain their previous momentum, with AUD/USD dropping over 0.5% to 0.7465, NZD/USD retreating to 0.7150, and USD/CAD surging over 70 pips to 1.2375. JPY was the best performer of the day. USD/JPY once dived to 113.65, and settled at 114.00 at the time of writing.

Gold seesawed around $1,780 a troy ounce during the day, while crude oil encountered some corrective selling pressures, with WTI slipping to $82.60 a barrel, and Brent at $84.70. The US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield resumed its 5-day winning streak and reached a 5-month high at 1.690%.

Cryptos plunged on Thursday right after Bitcoin hit an all-time high yesterday. Bitcoin has lost over 7% of its total value from its peak, while Etherum declined a modest 1.90%, still standing above the $4,000 threshold. 

Technical Analysis

USDCAD (4-hour Chart)

The Loonie finally got a decent hike on Thursday after losing for almost 3 weeks. The pair posted its lowest daily close since early July at 1.2288 during Asian hours, and then bounced to the upside. During the American session, it printed a fresh daily high at 1.2383, and was last seen at 1.2370.

The dollar index swung higher at the close of Wall Street, ending its six-day downtrend. Higher US Treasury yields and the deteriorating market mood underpinned the Greenback. Moreover, the correction in oil prices also weighed on the demand for CAD, further pushing the USD/CAD price upwards. The main trend in USD/CAD should still be on the downside, as long as the worldwide recovery from the pandemic continues, and the demand for energy remains robust.

On the technical front, both the daily MACD histogram and RSI indicator suggests strong bearish sentiment. The price actions are away from the bottom of the Bollinger bands, sparing some rooms for further southern extension.

Resistance: 1.2480 (50% Fibonacci), 1.2750 (78.6% Fibonacci), 1.29490 (yearly high)

Support: 1.2232 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.2010 (yearly low)

EURUSD (4-hour Chart)

The euro continued its reversal from week-highs at 1.1665 to hit fresh session lows at 1.16 during Thursday’s late U.S. session. The pair is giving away gains after a three-day rally, weighed by higher demand for the Greenback amid sourer market sentiment. Quarterly earnings numbers have failed to lift spirits, and concerns about surging inflation and the supply chain collapse have bolstered demand for safe assets against riskier currencies such as Fiber.

On the macroeconomic side, U.S. data has been mixed. Weekly jobless claims have dropped to their lowest levels in 19 months and existing home sales increased 7.0%, the highest reading since January. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing survey dropped to 23.8 from 30.7 in the previous month. On the technical side, the RSI moved down under the 50 threshold to 48.6 figures in the day market, suggesting slightly bearish movement in the short term. For the moving averages, the 15- long indicator has reversed its downward trajectory with exceedingly rapid momentum and the 60-long indicator is turning its head toward slightly upward momentum.

In light of the backdrop of mixed suggestions from the indicators, we expect that the euro will continue to float in a consolidation range between 1.161 and 1.1675. Moreover, it should hover around perfectly upside momentum as it breaks through a W pattern by price-action. However, the market is still lingering in a choppy box pattern.

Resistance: 1165, 1.1675, 1.171

Support: 1.153, 1.161

USDJPY (4 Hour Chart)

The Japanese yen edged lower for the second successive day after hitting the highest level in years amid reviving safe-haven demand. Renewed worries about China’s property sector extended support to the safe-haven JPY. Recently, it dropped below 114 level to 113.63, the lowest point in the week. Furthermore, with the U.S. 10-year Treasuries bond yield hitting its 4-month peak at 1.68%, the market is anticipating that the persistently high inflation and global supply chain congestion will force the Fed to accelerate its tapering of their monetary policy, which has provided additional support to the dollar as well.

From a technical perspective, the RSI indicator retreated under the natural level at 48, suggesting slightly bearish momentum in the short term. On moving average indicators, the 15-long indicator has turned its way to the subtle downside, and the 60-long indicator has retained upward movement.

Since the yen has slipped under the 114 level as the neckline of a double-head, it seems to have lost bullish momentum under current circumstances according to price action. Therefore, we deem that strong resistance has turned to 114 and 115 next. On the slipway, we expect the next immediately support will be a psychological level at 113.5

Resistance: 114, 115

Support: 113.5, 112.57, 112

20211022
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