Rate Roulette: Various Central Banks Gear Up for Decisions

Tuesday, 18 June 2024, 06:30 – RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

In May, Australia’s central bank, the RBA, maintained its interest rate at 4.35%, as widely expected for the fourth meeting in a row. The bank cautioned that inflation risks were tilted towards rising, indicating that there were no imminent plans for policy adjustments in the near term. Persistent inflationary pressures have led financial markets to anticipate that the RBA will opt to raise rather than lower interest rates later this year, possibly starting as early as September. However, it is unlikely that there will be any changes to interest rates at the next scheduled meeting.

Tuesday, 18 June 2024, 14:30 – US Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

In April, U.S. retail sales stagnated at 0.0%, disappointing expectations and trailing the previous month’s figures of 0.0% and 0.6% respectively. This indicates that Americans unexpectedly halted their spending from March, affected by ongoing inflationary pressures and higher interest rates that made borrowing more difficult. As inflation remains a concern and the labor market cools with employers reducing hiring, analysts anticipate that forthcoming data will reflect continued impacts and a slowdown in spending.

Thursday, 20 June 2024, 09:30 – SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q2)

In March, the Swiss Central Bank caught markets off guard by becoming the first major central bank to decrease interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, lowering them from 1.75% to 1.50%. This decision followed Switzerland experiencing zero month-on-month inflation and a drop in the annual inflation rate to 1%. While there was an expectation in the market for the central bank to continue reducing rates, inflation returned in April and May 2024. Consequently, it is now less likely that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will implement an immediate rate cut. Instead, it is expected to maintain the interest rate steady at the current level while closely monitoring the evolving inflation situation.

Thursday, 20 June 2024, 13:30 – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

In May, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, in line with expectations. The bank noted that its current tight monetary policy was effective in controlling inflation but cautioned that a rate cut in June was not certain. Despite a slight dip in consumer prices that has not yet reached the central bank’s target of two percent, inflation remains a significant concern. Market expectations lean towards the central bank maintaining the high interest rate to address inflationary pressures. According to a Reuters Poll, it is anticipated that the Bank of England will commence reducing the borrowing costs starting in August.